Prostate Cancer

Disease Overview

Todo

Add definition of prostate cancer. In particular, find data about global prevalence and disease fatal and non fatal description.

GBD 2017 Modeling Strategy

Prostate cancer in GBD 2017

The GBD modelling strategy can be found in the GBD YLD Capstone Appendix [GBD-2017-YLD-Capstone-Appendix-1-Prostate-Cancer].

Incidence is estimated directly from mortality using mortality to incidence ratios (MIR).

Because of long-term disability associated with prostatectomy, prevalence for prostate cancer is estimated beyond ten years. To estimate the disability, total prevalence for prostate cancer is split into

1. Diagnosis and primary therapy

2. Controlled phase

   1. Controlled phase of prostate cancer, with impotence

   2. Controlled phase of prostate cancer, with incontinence

   3. Controlled phase of prostate cancer, without impotence or incontinence

3. Metastatic phase

4. Terminal phase

5. Impotence and Incontinence after 10-year survival from prostate cancer

   1. Impotence from prostate cancer, beyond 10 years

   2. Incontincence from prostate cancer, beyond 10 years

Todo

Add more details about GBD modelling strategy of Prostate cancer.

Cause Hierarchy

Restrictions

Restrictions

Restriction Type	Value	Notes
Male only	True
Female only	False
YLL only	False
YLD only	False
YLL age group start	15 to 19	GBD age group id is 8
YLL age group end	95 plus	GBD age group id is 235
YLD age group start	15 to 19	GBD age group id is 8
YLD age group end	95 plus	GBD age group id is 235

Vivarium Modeling Strategy

Scope

Todo

Add scope.

Model Assumptions and Limitations

1. Within GBD 2017, after diagnosis/ treatment if a patient survives more than 10 years, they are considered cured for calculating disability. For simulation models, this means that if the simulation is run for more than 10 years, then excess mortality rate exists due to cancer after 10 years and the number of deaths increase. But as per GBD 2017, after 10 years, the patients do not have excess mortality rate. So, this model might over estimate deaths in that scenario.

Todo

Add more assumptions and limitations.

Cause Model Diagram

Within GBD 2017 data, the remission rate is not available which makes it difficult to transition through the states. So, due to data limitations we are simplifying the model.

Note: This simpliflication might over estimate the number of deaths. See Model Assumptions and Limitations section for more information.

State and Transition Data Tables

Definitions

State	State Name	Definition
S	Susceptible	Susceptible to prostate cancer
I	Infected	Infected with prostate cancer

States Data

State	Measure	Value	Notes
S	prevalence	1-prevalence_c438
S	excess mortality rate	0
S	disabilty weights	0
I	prevalence	prevalence_c438
I	excess mortality rate	\(\frac{\text{deaths\_c438}}{\text{population} \times \text{prevalence\_c438}}\)
I	disability weights	\(\displaystyle{\sum_{s\in \text{sequelae\_c438}}} \scriptstyle{\text{disability\_weight}_s \,\times\, \text{prevalence}_s}\)	total disability weight over all sequelae with ids s_290, s_5495, s_5498, s_5501, s_292, s_293, s_5504, s_5507
ALL	cause specific mortality rate	\(\frac{\text{deaths\_c438}}{\text{population}}\)

Transition Data

Transition	Source	Sink	Value	Notes
i	S	I	\(\frac{\text{incidence\_rate\_c438}}{\text{1 - prevalence\_c438}}\)	Incidence rate in total population is divided by 1-prevalence_c438 to get incidence rate among the susceptible population.

Data Sources

Measure	Sources	Description	Notes
prevalence_c438	como	Prevalence of cause prostate cancer
deaths_c438	codcorrect	Deaths from prostate cancer
population	demography	Mid-year population for given country
incidence_rate_c438	como	Incidence rate for prostate cancer
disability_weight_s{sid}	YLD appendix	Disability weights associated with each sequelae
prevalence_s{sid}	como	Prevalence of each sequelae

Validation Criteria

Todo

Describe tests for model validation.

References

[GBD-2017-YLD-Capstone-Appendix-1-Prostate-Cancer]

Supplement to: GBD 2017 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1789–858 (pp. 310-317)